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Indicators/Drawdown from ATH
Cycle · Drawdown Updated hourly · live close

Drawdown from ATH.

Distance from all-time high. The simplest cycle-position read there is — near 0% is the top, below -50% is the buy zone.
Mode
Smart DCA ▾
Asset
τ TAO▾
Backtest
1 year▾
Buy zone ≤ Buy zone When the indicator drops to or below this threshold, the strategy doubles its weekly buy (Smart-DCA) or opens a long (Trade). It's the "cheap" regime — time to accumulate.
%
Trim zone ≥Sell zone ≥ Trim zoneSell zone When the indicator climbs to or above this, the strategy skips the weekly buy and trims 5% of the stack. Stretched regime. When the indicator climbs to or above this, the strategy exits to cash. Distribution regime.
%
Compare with
— ▾
Signal
Set alert
Smart-DCA edge Trade P&L — —
— more coins vs Flat DCA cumulative return
Capital saved Alpha vs hold — —
less capital required per coin outperformance vs Buy & Hold
Activations Time in market — —
— signals in — weeks —% in cash
TAO Price Drawdown —
τao/minal
COMPUTING
τao/minal · offchain · daily close · running ATH from earliest available history
Allocation rule Now — · in — zone
0 — — —
Buy
When drawdown ≤ -50% → deploy 2× weekly budget into the asset (deep accumulation, cycle bottoming zone).
Hold
When -50% < drawdown < -10% → deploy 1× weekly budget (baseline DCA, mid-cycle).
Trim Sell
When drawdown ≥ -10% → skip buy and trim 5% of stack (late-cycle distribution zone).
Price — Latest close
Current drawdown — % below all-time high
All-time high — Closing price peak
Days since ATH — Calendar days underwater
-50% threshold — Accumulation marker
-10% threshold — Distribution marker
> -10%
Drawdown near ATH.

Price is within 10% of its all-time high. Historically this zone has framed local distribution windows: late-cycle euphoria, blow-off tops, and the moments when long-term holders begin to take profit. Statistically the worst place to add risk.

< -50%
Drawdown deep underwater.

Price is more than 50% below its all-time high. Across every prior crypto cycle, this zone has produced the strongest forward returns. Survival bias matters — only assets that survive their drawdowns earn back. On younger assets the record is short but consistent: deep-drawdown weeks have tended to outperform.

How to read it
Distance from the all-time high, expressed as a percentage. Always ≤ 0%. Above −10% historically marks distribution zones; below −50% historically marks accumulation zones.

Drawdown is the most direct cycle-position read available. The formula is just (price ÷ all-time high) − 1. A value of 0% means today's price equals the ATH. -67% means we are 67% below it. The signal needs no smoothing, no moving average, no model fit — the data IS the signal.

Across crypto history (BTC, ETH, every survived altcoin), the strongest forward returns have come from accumulation during deep-drawdown periods. The empirical record on BTC: every drawdown deeper than -75% has been followed by a new ATH within 24 months. Every drawdown shallower than -10% has been followed by a -30%+ correction within 12 months.

The asymmetric nature of the indicator is its honesty: it can only go to zero on the top side, but has no floor on the bottom. That makes it impossible to "false-positive" on the buy side — deep drawdowns are real, not artifacts of normalization.

Asset-aware: drawdown is the same formula for any price series, so this indicator works identically on every asset wired into the platform. The ATH is computed independently per asset from the earliest available daily-close history.