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Indicators/Mayer Multiple
Cycle · Valuation Updated hourly · live close

Mayer Multiple.

Price ÷ 200-day moving average. Classic overheated / undervalued indicator.
Mode
Smart DCA ▾
Asset
τ TAO▾
Backtest
1 year▾
Buy zone ≤ Buy zone When the indicator drops to or below this threshold, the strategy doubles its weekly buy (Smart-DCA) or opens a long (Trade). It's the "cheap" regime — time to accumulate.
×
Trim zone ≥Sell zone ≥ Trim zoneSell zone When the indicator climbs to or above this, the strategy skips the weekly buy and trims 5% of the stack. Stretched regime. When the indicator climbs to or above this, the strategy exits to cash. Distribution regime.
×
Compare with
— ▾
Signal
Set alert
Smart-DCA edge Trade P&L — —
— more coins vs Flat DCA cumulative return
Capital saved Alpha vs hold — —
less capital required per coin outperformance vs Buy & Hold
Activations Time in market — —
— signals in — weeks —% in cash
TAO Price 200-day MA Mayer Multiple —
τao/minal
COMPUTING
τao/minal · offchain · daily aggregates
Allocation rule Now — · in — zone
0 — — —
Buy
When Mayer ≤ 1.14× → deploy 2× weekly budget into the asset (accumulation zone, below historical mean).
Hold
When 1.14× < Mayer < 2.40× → deploy 1× weekly budget (baseline DCA, fair-value zone).
Trim Sell
When Mayer ≥ 2.40× → skip buy and trim 5% of stack (distribution zone, statistically stretched).
Price — Latest close
Current multiple — Price ÷ 200d MA
200-day MA — Rolling daily close
1.0× threshold — Accumulation marker
2.4× threshold — Historical overheated marker
Alpha vs Hold — Strategy − hold
> 2.4×
Mayer overheated.

Price is more than 2.4× above its 200-day average — historically the distribution zone. On Bitcoin, every cycle top since 2011 has occurred near or above this level.

< 1.0×
Mayer accumulation.

Price is trading below its 200-day average — historically an accumulation window. The deepest readings (0.5×–0.7×) have been the strongest long-term entries.

How to read it
Price divided by the 200-day moving average. Above 2.4 historically marks overheated tops; below 1.0 marks the accumulation zone.

Introduced by Trace Mayer in 2014, this is the simplest cycle locator there is. The formula is just price ÷ 200-day moving average. A reading of 1.0× means price equals its 200-day trend; above is stretched up, below is stretched down.

Mayer's original simulations showed that the best long-term returns came from accumulating whenever the multiple was below 2.4×. Excursions above that level have historically marked distribution phases ahead of multi-month drawdowns.

The indicator's edge is its simplicity — no on-chain or exchange data, just price and a moving average. Inputs that can't break.

The classic 2.4× threshold is drawn from Bitcoin's cycle history, so it's a starting point rather than a settled fact for a younger or different asset. Use the threshold dropdown to test other levels against the selected asset's history; as more cycle data accumulates, the empirical thresholds will be recalibrated and published here.