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Indicators/Kernel Envelope
Market · Mean-Reversion Updated hourly · live close

Kernel Envelope.

A non-parametric smoothed baseline with adaptive volatility bands. Buy when price drops to the lower band, trim when it crosses the upper.
Mode
Smart DCA ▾
Asset
τ TAO▾
Backtest
1 year▾
Algorithm
Nadaraya–Watson▾
Smoothing
Balanced▾
Bands
Standard▾
Buy zone ≤ Buy zone When the indicator drops to or below this threshold, the strategy doubles its weekly buy (Smart-DCA) or opens a long (Trade). It's the "cheap" regime — time to accumulate.
%
Trim zone ≥Sell zone ≥ Trim zoneSell zone When the indicator climbs to or above this, the strategy skips the weekly buy and trims 5% of the stack. Stretched regime. When the indicator climbs to or above this, the strategy exits to cash. Distribution regime.
%
Compare with
— ▾
Signal
Set alert
Smart-DCA edge Trade P&L — —
— more coins vs Flat DCA cumulative return
Capital saved Alpha vs hold — —
less capital required per coin outperformance vs Buy & Hold
Activations Time in market — —
— signals in — weeks —% in cash
TAO Price Baseline Band position —
τao/minal
COMPUTING
τao/minal · offchain · daily aggregates
Allocation rule Now — · in — zone
0 — — —
Buy
When band position ≤ 0% (price at or below the lower band) → deploy 2× weekly budget (mean-reversion accumulation zone).
Hold
When 0% < band position < 100% → deploy 1× weekly budget (baseline DCA, price inside the envelope).
Trim Sell
When band position ≥ 100% (price at or above the upper band) → skip buy and trim 5% of stack (overextension zone).
Price — Latest close
Baseline — Kernel smoothed
Band position — 0 = lower · 100 = upper
Upper band — Trim threshold
Lower band — Buy threshold
Alpha vs Hold — Strategy − hold
Position ≥ 100%
Above upper band.

Price has stretched above the kernel-smoothed fair value plus its adaptive σ band. Historically a mean-reversion zone — take-profit territory for long-only strategies.

Position ≤ 0%
Below lower band.

Price has fallen below the kernel-smoothed fair value minus its adaptive σ band — the accumulation zone. Statistical extremes tend to mean-revert.

How to read it
A non-parametric mean-reversion indicator that fits a smooth baseline through the asset's price history without imposing a specific functional form. The bands above and below are sized by recent volatility, so they widen during turbulent regimes and tighten when price action calms.

The signal series is band position: 0% means price is sitting on the lower band, 100% means it's touching the upper band, and values outside [0, 100] mean price has broken out of the envelope. The accumulation zone is anything ≤ 0% (price stretched below fair value); the distribution zone is anything ≥ 100%.

Because the baseline is kernel-smoothed (Nadaraya–Watson), it adapts to local price structure rather than chasing a fixed window. Combined with adaptive volatility bands, this produces tighter accumulation calls during low-volatility regimes and more permissive ones when volatility expands — closer to how a discretionary trader would actually read the chart.