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Indicators/STH Realized Price
Cycle · Cost Basis Updated daily · 00:00 UTC

STH Realized Price.

155-day volume-weighted average price. The cost basis of the asset's most recent buyers.
Mode
Smart DCA ▾
Asset
τ TAO▾
Backtest
1 year▾
Buy zone ≤ Buy zone When the indicator drops to or below this threshold, the strategy doubles its weekly buy (Smart-DCA) or opens a long (Trade). It's the "cheap" regime — time to accumulate.
%
Trim zone ≥Sell zone ≥ Trim zoneSell zone When the indicator climbs to or above this, the strategy skips the weekly buy and trims 5% of the stack. Stretched regime. When the indicator climbs to or above this, the strategy exits to cash. Distribution regime.
%
Compare with
— ▾
Signal
Set alert
Smart-DCA edge Trade P&L — —
— more coins vs Flat DCA cumulative return
Capital saved Alpha vs hold — —
less capital required per coin outperformance vs Buy & Hold
Activations Time in market — —
— signals in — weeks —% in cash
TAO Price STH Realized Premium —
τao/minal
COMPUTING
τao/minal · onchain · daily aggregates
Allocation rule Now — · in — zone
0 — — —
Buy
When premium ≤ lower threshold → deploy 2× weekly budget (short-term holders in capitulation vs cost basis).
Hold
When lower < premium < upper → deploy 1× weekly budget (baseline DCA).
Trim Sell
When premium ≥ upper threshold → skip buy and trim 5% (short-term holders deep in profit — distribution risk).
Price — Latest close
STH Realized — 155-day VWAP
Premium — Price ÷ STHRP − 1
Current streak — Days at this regime
Max above streak — Longest profit run
Max below streak — Longest loss run
Total above — Days in profit
Total below — Days in loss
Alpha vs Hold — Strategy − hold
> +20%
Recent buyers heavily in profit.

Price is more than 20% above the cost basis of trailing buyers. Late-cycle behavior — those who bought in the last 155 days are sitting on outsized gains and historically begin distribution from this band.

< 0%
Recent buyers underwater.

Price has fallen below the 155-day VWAP. Most recent buyers are in loss. Historically these zones precede the strongest forward returns — the market is shaking out weak hands while patient capital accumulates.

How to read it
The 155-day volume-weighted average price — a proxy for the average cost paid by the asset's most recent buyers. Above it, recent buyers are in profit. Below it, they're underwater.

On Bitcoin this metric averages the cost basis of UTXOs aged under 155 days. The 155-day threshold separates short-term holders (reactive) from long-term holders (high conviction). Crosses of the line tend to mark regime shifts.

Without per-wallet cost-basis data, we approximate it with a 155-day volume-weighted average price: STHRP = Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). Days with heavier volume weight the average more, which matches the spirit of the original.

The streak counter shows how long the current regime has lasted. Long streaks above STHRP often align with mid-to-late bull runs. Long streaks below align with major capitulation zones — historically the best accumulation windows.

Premium reads as price ÷ STHRP − 1. Sustained positive premium means a hot market; sustained negative premium means distress. Mean reversion back to the line is the dominant pattern over multi-month horizons.