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Indicators/Bull Market Support Band
Cycle · Weekly trend Updated daily · 00:00 UTC

Bull Market Support Band.

The 20-week SMA and 21-week EMA form a dynamic band on the price chart. Holding above keeps the bull market alive.
Mode
Smart DCA ▾
Asset
τ TAO▾
Backtest
1 year▾
Buy zone ≤ Buy zone When the indicator drops to or below this threshold, the strategy doubles its weekly buy (Smart-DCA) or opens a long (Trade). It's the "cheap" regime — time to accumulate.
%
Trim zone ≥Sell zone ≥ Trim zoneSell zone When the indicator climbs to or above this, the strategy skips the weekly buy and trims 5% of the stack. Stretched regime. When the indicator climbs to or above this, the strategy exits to cash. Distribution regime.
%
Compare with
— ▾
Signal
Set alert
Smart-DCA edge Trade P&L — —
— more coins vs Flat DCA cumulative return
Capital saved Alpha vs hold — —
less capital required per coin outperformance vs Buy & Hold
Activations Time in market — —
— signals in — weeks —% in cash
Price Band position —
τao/minal
COMPUTING
τao/minal · onchain · weekly aggregates
Allocation rule Now — · in — zone
0 — — —
Buy
When price is inside the band (between 20W SMA and 21W EMA) → deploy 2× weekly budget (support-zone accumulation, classic re-test buy).
Hold
When price is above the upper edge → deploy 1× weekly budget (bull regime confirmed, baseline DCA).
Trim Sell
When price is below the lower edge → skip buy (bull-market support lost — defensive posture until reclaim).
Price — Latest close
Upper edge — 21W EMA
Midline — Mean of band edges
Lower edge — 20W SMA
Position — In-band 0-100%
Alpha vs Hold — Strategy − hold
Above upper edge
Bull trend intact.

Price is trading above both moving averages — macro uptrend is in force. Pullbacks into the band have historically been support; losing the lower edge would signal a trend break.

Below lower edge
Bear trend in control.

Price has lost the band and now trades below both moving averages. Macro bias is bearish until the upper edge is reclaimed.

How to read it
The single most-cited weekly indicator on Bitcoin Twitter. Two moving averages — a 20-week simple and a 21-week exponential — drawn on the price chart form a band that acts as dynamic support in bull regimes and resistance in bear regimes.

On BTC, the band has held as support through every retest during the 2020–21 bull run and again during 2023–24. Losing it has marked every macro trend break. Reclaiming it has signalled the start of every recovery.

The shaded zone between the two MAs is the band itself. Price above the upper edge = bull regime intact. Price below the lower edge = bear regime. Inside the band = transitional / chop.

On a younger asset the cycle history is short — perhaps one clean rejection from the band and one reclaim so far. As more cycle data accumulates, the band's reliability as a regime gauge will improve.

DCA modulator: inside the band → 2× weekly buys (the support-zone accumulation), above the upper edge → 1× baseline DCA, below the lower edge → skip the buy until reclaim.