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Indicators/Pi Cycle Top
Cycle · SMA crossover Updated daily · 00:00 UTC

Pi Cycle Top.

When the 111-day moving average pierces 2× the 350-day, blowoff tops historically arrive within days.
Mode
Smart DCA ▾
Asset
τ TAO▾
Backtest
1 year▾
Buy zone ≤ Buy zone When the indicator drops to or below this threshold, the strategy doubles its weekly buy (Smart-DCA) or opens a long (Trade). It's the "cheap" regime — time to accumulate.
×
Trim zone ≥Sell zone ≥ Trim zoneSell zone When the indicator climbs to or above this, the strategy skips the weekly buy and trims 5% of the stack. Stretched regime. When the indicator climbs to or above this, the strategy exits to cash. Distribution regime.
×
Compare with
— ▾
Signal
Set alert
Smart-DCA edge Trade P&L — —
— more coins vs Flat DCA cumulative return
Capital saved Alpha vs hold — —
less capital required per coin outperformance vs Buy & Hold
Activations Time in market — —
— signals in — weeks —% in cash
Price Pi top line SMA111 / 2·SMA350 —
τao/minal
COMPUTING
τao/minal · onchain · daily aggregates
Allocation rule Now — · in — zone
0 — — —
Buy
When Pi ratio ≤ 0.5× → deploy 2× weekly budget (post-bear capitulation, re-accumulation).
Hold
When 0.5× < Pi < 1.0× → deploy 1× weekly budget (baseline DCA).
Trim Sell
When Pi ≥ 1.0× → skip buy and trim 10% of stack (cycle-top distribution signal).
Price — Latest close
111-day SMA — Short trend
350-day SMA × 2 — Long trend (×2)
Pi ratio — SMA111 ÷ (2·SMA350)
Days since last — Since last cross
Alpha vs Hold — Strategy − hold
Pi ratio > 1.0
Cycle top signal active.

The short trend has pierced 2× the long trend. On Bitcoin, this condition has fired within days of every cycle peak. Distribute aggressively — historical hit rate is excellent.

Pi ratio < 0.5
Cycle low conditions.

The short trend has fallen to half the long trend or below — capitulation conditions on the macro chart. Accumulation zones historically resolve up.

How to read it
The cleanest cycle-top signal Bitcoin has produced. Two moving averages, one ratio. When the short trend (111-day) crosses above two times the long trend (350-day), price is mathematically guaranteed to be in a vertical phase.

On BTC the indicator has flagged every cycle peak: November 2013, December 2017, April 2021. The lag from trigger to local top has been days, not months. It's blunt — a binary cross — but the historical hit rate is remarkable.

The chart shows the ratio SMA111 ÷ (2 × SMA350). Above 1.0 = top condition active. Approaching 1.0 = parabolic risk building. Far below 1.0 = no top signal in sight.

On a younger asset the indicator is less battle-tested — often only one major cycle of history so far. Use it as a signal alongside Mayer and Z-Score rather than a standalone trigger.

Backtest: long until the cross fires, then cash. Re-enter on the symmetric low-side cross (ratio < 0.5×, indicating mean-reversion lows). Long-only, single trigger per cross.