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Indicators/Stock-to-Flow
Cycle · Scarcity Updated daily · 00:00 UTC

Stock-to-Flow.

Supply ÷ annual emission. PlanB's framework adapted to Bittensor's 4-year halving cycle.
Mode
Smart DCA ▾
Asset
τ TAO▾
Backtest
1 year▾
Project until
Halving 2▾
Buy zone ≤ Buy zone When the indicator drops to or below this threshold, the strategy doubles its weekly buy (Smart-DCA) or opens a long (Trade). It's the "cheap" regime — time to accumulate.
%
Trim zone ≥Sell zone ≥ Trim zoneSell zone When the indicator climbs to or above this, the strategy skips the weekly buy and trims 5% of the stack. Stretched regime. When the indicator climbs to or above this, the strategy exits to cash. Distribution regime.
%
Compare with
— ▾
Signal
Set alert
Smart-DCA edge Trade P&L — —
— more coins vs Flat DCA cumulative return
Capital saved Alpha vs hold — —
less capital required per coin outperformance vs Buy & Hold
Activations Time in market — —
— signals in — weeks —% in cash
TAO Price S2F Model Deviation —
τao/minal
COMPUTING
τao/minal · onchain · daily aggregates
Allocation rule Now — · in — zone
0 — — —
Buy
When deviation is ≤ −30% → deploy 2× weekly budget (price is below modeled scarcity value — undervalued zone).
Hold
When −30% < deviation < +50% → deploy 1× weekly budget (baseline DCA, fair-value zone).
Trim Sell
When deviation is ≥ +50% → skip buy and trim 5% (price is well above the model — overvalued zone).
Price — Latest close
S2F Model — Predicted · log fit
Deviation — Price ÷ model − 1
S2F Ratio — Supply ÷ annual emission
Next halving — Days at current rate
Alpha vs Hold — Strategy − hold
> +50%
Price extended above model.

Price is more than 50% above the S2F model fair value — historically marks distribution territory in scarcity-driven assets. The further price stretches above the model line, the higher the probability of mean reversion within 3–9 months.

< −30%
Price below model.

Price trades more than 30% below S2F fair value — historically the accumulation window. The deepest below-model excursions have produced the strongest forward returns through prior halving cycles.

How to read it
Supply divided by annualised emission, fit against log price. The classic Bitcoin scarcity model adapted to Bittensor.

Stock-to-Flow models the relationship between an asset's existing supply (the stock) and its yearly new issuance (the flow). PlanB introduced the framework for Bitcoin in 2019; we apply it to Bittensor's identical 21M cap and threshold-based halving schedule.

Bittensor halves emission by 50% each time circulating supply crosses a threshold (10.5M, 15.75M, 18.375M, ...). At each halving the S2F ratio doubles overnight, so the model line steps up to a new plateau. Between halvings it drifts slowly as supply accumulates against a fixed emission rate.

The dashed model line is what the regression predicts price should be given current scarcity. The deviation row reads price ÷ model − 1: persistent negative readings mark a market discount, persistent positive a premium.

Bittensor is younger than Bitcoin, with only ~3 years of price history and one halving (Dec 2025) observed. The model's coefficients will recalibrate as more cycles complete; treat S2F as a directional scarcity signal, not a precise price oracle.