TAO Tensor Law.
TAO's price fitted to a power law of network age. Fair value plus discount-to-bubble bands show where this cycle sits in the long arc.Price is trading well above the power-law fair value, inside the bubble band. In the one cycle TAO has printed so far, this zone has marked stretched valuations. Distribute into strength; expected forward return from here is poor.
Price is trading well below fair value, inside the discount band. These are the cheapest readings the model produces. Accumulation conditions — expected forward return is strongest from this zone.
The math: Price = C · (days_since_genesis + offset)α. This implementation fixes the two shape parameters at the values decodejar published — exponent α = 0.707 and offset = 32 days — and solves only the scale C by ordinary least squares on TAO's full daily price history. The discount / value / expensive / bubble bands are log-symmetric multiples of the fitted line.
How to read it: the chart shows price, the fair-value midline, and the value and expensive band edges. Price below the lower edge is a discount; above the upper edge is a bubble. The ratio pane is simply price ÷ fair value — 1.00× sits exactly on the line. The sidebar lists the four bands in today's dollars.
Honest caveat: TAO has roughly one cycle of tradable history, so the fit is loose — decodejar reports an R² near 0.51, far below the ~0.95 a mature power law like Bitcoin's shows. The fair-value line is a directional anchor, not a precise price target, and the bands are wide. It earns most of its keep as a long-term context read and a Confluence input rather than a standalone trigger.
Model and parameters by decodejar (decodejar.com · taotensorlaw.com). As more price history accumulates the fit tightens; until then, treat the bands as a map of the terrain, not a timer.